Reduced Transboundary Haze Risk in 2024 Amid La Niña Return A recent report has projected a low risk of transboundary haze in 2024, citing the anticipated return of La Niña conditions in the second half of the year. La Niña, a cyclical climate pattern characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically leads to increased rainfall in Southeast Asia. This rainfall helps to suppress wildfires, which are a major contributor to transboundary haze. The report, commissioned by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre, analyzed meteorological data and climate models to forecast the likelihood of haze events in 2024. The findings suggest that the influence of La Niña will result in a reduced risk of severe haze episodes in the region. “The return of La Niña is expected to bring more rainfall to the region, which will create a less favorable environment for the spread of wildfires,” said Dr. Nguyen Duc Toan, Director of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre. The report further highlights that the transboundary haze risk will vary across the Southeast Asian region. Indonesia, which historically experiences the most severe haze events, is expected to have a lower risk in 2024. However, certain parts of Malaysia and Singapore may still face localized haze due to factors such as land use practices and illegal burning. “It is important to note that while La Niña can reduce the risk of haze, it does not eliminate it entirely,” said Dr. Toan. “Therefore, authorities and communities must remain vigilant and implement mitigation measures to prevent and control haze events.” The report also emphasizes the need for regional cooperation and coordinated efforts to address transboundary haze, including land management strategies, fire prevention campaigns, and early warning systems. By working together, Southeast Asian countries can minimize the impact of haze pollution and protect public health and the environment.Singapore’s Low Haze Risk in 2024Singapore’s Low Haze Risk in 2024 According to the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), Singapore is at low risk of transboundary haze in 2024. This is due to the expected return of La Niña, which will bring wetter weather and reduce the risk of fires in Indonesia. Additionally, the risk of haze from expanding plantations is considered low. The SIIA’s green or low-risk rating is only the second time the think tank has issued such a rating in its six-year history. The first green rating was given in 2021, which was also a year with prolonged La Niña conditions. La Niña, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean, is known to reduce the frequency and intensity of wildfires in the region. The SIIA expects La Niña to return in late 2024, which will likely result in wetter weather and decreased fire risk. In addition to the climate conditions, the SIIA also considered market trends and fire prevention policies in its analysis. The report suggests that the risk of haze from plantation expansion is relatively low in the short term. However, the replanting of oil palms planted in the 1990s and early 2000s may pose a risk, although this is uncertain. The SIIA also acknowledged the efforts of the Indonesian government and various organizations in fire prevention measures, which have significantly reduced smoke and fires in recent years. While the risk of haze in 2024 is low, the report emphasizes that fires should not be overlooked and that continued efforts are necessary to control forest fires in Indonesia. Beyond 2024, the risk of haze will depend on the governance and policies of Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto.During the upcoming dry season in Southeast Asia, transboundary haze is anticipated to be at a low risk, according to a new assessment. The improved air quality is linked to the reappearance of the La Niña phenomenon. The annual Southeast Asia State of the Climate report, which was released by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), said that the occurrence of dryness and drought in the region is expected to be below normal during the dry season from June to September. The report further indicated that the upcoming La Niña is likely to bring wetter-than-average conditions to the southern ASEAN region, including Indonesia, during the southern hemisphere winter (June to August). According to ASMC experts, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean contribute to the formation of La Niña. They said that during La Niña years, the monsoon winds become stronger, bringing more rainfall to the southern ASEAN region. The improved air quality in Southeast Asia is anticipated to alleviate the transboundary haze problem, which has plagued the region for decades. Haze, caused by forest fires, is a significant source of air pollution that affects human health and the environment. The ASMC report also highlights the importance of reducing emissions from other sources, such as vehicles and industries, to improve air quality in the region.